Covid-19: the future

Covid-19 has changed our world. Economies are in recession. There is no clear solution in sight.

The data paints a confusing picture. The countries with some of the best health care systems are suffering the highest mortality rates, with Britain leading the pack.

People over 65 are high risk, but that is an over-simplification. China and Japan’s have a high median age, but their mortality rates are low. South Africa’s poor health care facilities are overwhelmed, but again, the mortality rates don’t reflect that failure.

To be sure, there are questions about the reliability of the data. Statisticians have found ways to compensate, calculating the excess deaths, the difference between trend and total deaths, but even then it is mostly those countries with the best health care that suffer the highest mortality rates.

When we look at the obesity rates, and the incidence of chronic conditions within the population, there is a clearer picture. It is not age that determines whether a person is at risk, it is their state of health. Covid-19 is a respiratory disease, and people with chronic ailments, particularly respiratory conditions are at risk. Mexico, the country with the worst obesity rates has a mortality rate of over 10%. Vietnam, with the lowest obesity rate has a 2.4% mortality rate.

But we have not dealt with Covid-19’s biggest threat, it’s potential as a weapon. The agents of chaos have a new attack vector. The contagion is transferred person to person, or through touching compromised surfaces. When the terrorists strike, they will use surfaces that we touch all the time: door handles, elevator buttons, keypads. distributing it using small fine spray bottles.

The spreaders, the people tasked with distributing the virus will need to be immune. They will have been intentionally infected, and recovered. We know from the hundreds of prominent sports people who have been positively tested, that people who are super-fit recover quickly and easily.

Until a vaccination is found, we are very vulnerable. Even then, the attack vector offers a new opportunity for terrorists to disrupt the world’s economies.

The most effective strategy will be develop a herd immunity, rebuilding our natural defenses, using exercise to make us resistant to Covid-19, and the next virus that could be used to destroy our dreams.