Solving Covid-19

The world’s leaders are making fundamental errors in our battle against Covid-19.
When facing crises, avoid panic. But panic is driving policy in many of the world’s democracies, particularly America and Britain. The focus on infection rates, rather than mortality rates is at the heart of the failure to find a solution.

The people who are dying from Covid have existing conditions and/or weakened immune systems Because it is a respiratory ailment, smokers are also at risk.

Our attempts to isolate the entire population, shutting down our economies in the process, is not working.

At present we’re pinning our hopes on the development of a vaccine.

There is a better solution.

A third of people who become infected are asymptomatic – they show no symptoms at all. Without full scale testing of the population, the track and trace system becomes an exercise in futility.

People who are generally healthy become infected and fall ill suffer brief flu-like symptoms, before enjoying full recovery. People who recover develop anti-bodies that protect them from re-infection. Of the 25 million people who have been infected, there are only four recorded cases of re-infection.

And that’s where the solution lies.

The people who must isolate are those who are at risk. The rest of the population have a responsibility to avoid contact with the risk groups, but otherwise can carry on life as normal. This will cause the disease to spread rapidly, and then die, as has happened to previous pandemics. We will develop a herd immunity, as our immune systems learns to counter the new threat.

The isolation is voluntary. The people who are at risk know who they are, and it’s their choice to make. The downside is the burden that they place on the healthcare system.

The people who are in the risk groups can escape their predicament. Many of the conditions that put them at risk are affected by poor eating habits, lack of exercise and smoking.

People’s poor choices are affecting everyone. That must stop?

Covid-19: the future

Covid-19 has changed our world. Economies are in recession. There is no clear solution in sight.

The data paints a confusing picture. The countries with some of the best health care systems are suffering the highest mortality rates, with Britain leading the pack.

People over 65 are high risk, but that is an over-simplification. China and Japan’s have a high median age, but their mortality rates are low. South Africa’s poor health care facilities are overwhelmed, but again, the mortality rates don’t reflect that failure.

To be sure, there are questions about the reliability of the data. Statisticians have found ways to compensate, calculating the excess deaths, the difference between trend and total deaths, but even then it is mostly those countries with the best health care that suffer the highest mortality rates.

When we look at the obesity rates, and the incidence of chronic conditions within the population, there is a clearer picture. It is not age that determines whether a person is at risk, it is their state of health. Covid-19 is a respiratory disease, and people with chronic ailments, particularly respiratory conditions are at risk. Mexico, the country with the worst obesity rates has a mortality rate of over 10%. Vietnam, with the lowest obesity rate has a 2.4% mortality rate.

But we have not dealt with Covid-19’s biggest threat, it’s potential as a weapon. The agents of chaos have a new attack vector. The contagion is transferred person to person, or through touching compromised surfaces. When the terrorists strike, they will use surfaces that we touch all the time: door handles, elevator buttons, keypads. distributing it using small fine spray bottles.

The spreaders, the people tasked with distributing the virus will need to be immune. They will have been intentionally infected, and recovered. We know from the hundreds of prominent sports people who have been positively tested, that people who are super-fit recover quickly and easily.

Until a vaccination is found, we are very vulnerable. Even then, the attack vector offers a new opportunity for terrorists to disrupt the world’s economies.

The most effective strategy will be develop a herd immunity, rebuilding our natural defenses, using exercise to make us resistant to Covid-19, and the next virus that could be used to destroy our dreams.